It is well known that most sexual and violent crime is overwhelmingly committed by men and that’s why women and girls sometimes need their own safe space away from men. Not because all men pose a danger but because saying no to all men is a simple and effective way to keep women and girls safe.
MOJ Offender Management Statistics show that men and women have very different patterns of criminality; men have a higher propensity to commit sexual crimes. The difference between the two sexes is stark.
We can now answer a simple question about transgender women criminality:
Does the crime pattern observed in the transwomen prison cohort match what we see for men or for women?
The fact that half of male prisoners who identify as transgender have been sentenced for sexual crime is strong evidence that transwomen exhibit a high propensity to commit sexual crime similar to that observed for men. They do not exhibit a low propensity to commit sexual crime like that observed for women.
It appears that identifying as a woman does not reduce the risk that male people can pose to others. If identifying as a women did reduce the propensity to commit sex crime to female levels we would have expected to see just 3 or 4 of transwomen in prison with sex crime convictions. Instead we see up to 76.